A confirmation bias game confirms that I have confirmation bias which is “the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one’s beliefs or hypotheses” along with 78% OTHER people who also played this game and ALSO CONFIRMS that they ALSO have confirmation bias who, just as I (I know because I know), and were not aware they are ALSO pre-disposed to (or are possessed by) being right (most/all the time).
Perhaps when you break down confirmation bias, it consists of both two components: being right and instant gratification. Confirmation bias might not be what caused me to “lose” the game rather it was desire for both instant gratification as well as proof that I am capable of grasping complex ideas that caused me to lose. Thus, when you break down confirmation bias, it consists of both these components.
So, what comes of all this? 1) Learn how to ask the right questions. 2) The right questions are often the ones that gives the you answer you least desire to hear because, as the author of the article claims:
- When you seek to disprove your idea, you sometimes end up proving it — and other times you can save yourself from making a big mistake. But you need to start by being willing to hear no. And even if you think that you are right, you need to make sure you’re asking questions that might actually produce an answer of no.
This is something I think we all gloss over. At least to a certain extent, we are all aware that we are not infallible and are perfectly capable of making mistakes. And, in many people’s line of work, making mistakes is unavoidable. As long as the mistakes are made within a controlled environment, the mistakes can be colloquially called “testing” (or is it the other way around?).
Testing is a seminal task for scientists, programmers, statisticians, chefs and just about anyone whose task is based on accuracy (for based on being right). And, when these people have their head screwed on right, the tester is also someone who makes a lot of mistakes. Because, how else can you ensure that you not make mistakes when it counts if you don’t first make as many mistakes as you can during the testing phase?
Well, I certainly failed to see this or at least I recently learned I have lost myself during my many years of working with data analysis that I have gradually given into confirmation bias as time went by, as I thought I’ve become less mistake prone as I’ve convinced myself